02-26-2014, 10:47 AM
(02-26-2014, 09:49 AM)Rynn Wrote: I agree, the prophetic nature really undermines any speculation. Along with the dates I get really annoyed by how easy things are always portrayed, as though a hand wavy time line of A to B to C is truly reflective of any scientific development. There will always be unforseen developments that will either speed up or slow down whatever it is one is talking about. It's never as simple as simply taking an idea and doing it as stated.
Yes you're right. It kind of reminds me of the early computer scientists who said that in 20 years (from the 1940's) that computers would "only" weigh "a few" tonnes, and take up "only" one small room. Or the belief of some in the 19th century that all possible flying machines would have to be based around the mechanics used in bird wings. Rarely does any tech develop according to a strict, rigid pattern of predictability over a steady timescale (although Moore's Law has held up nicely so far.)