05-21-2015, 08:12 AM
Hmmm... The real story about cancer cures is that progress is incremental. There is no "cure for cancer" because cancers are very greatly different, one from the other, only being essentially the same in one regard - uncontrolled cellular growth. But survival rates for nearly all of them are gradually improving.
Flying cars? Yup. Admittedly not in mass production; many of the problems are actually legal. (If you fail to maintain your brakes, or fall asleep at the wheel, most likely you might die but probably nobody else. A similar problem in a flying vehicle is quite another problem, especially in crowded areas.)
Household robots? Sorta. Vacuum cleaners and industrial courier robots for use inside buildings are relatively common, and getting more so.
One more thing: Predictions of technological advance are just about always over-optimistic in the short term and over-pessimistic in the long term. Personally, I think the Singularity will arrive by stealth; one fine day you'll realise that Siri or Cortana is actually sapient... And not long after that, as Vinge said (OK, maybe first) the rest of history will be out of human control and impossible to predict.
(Incidentally, of course here I mean the first singularity. Transapients might not even want to go any further, although admittedly if one believes that - most of OA is hogwash.)
Flying cars? Yup. Admittedly not in mass production; many of the problems are actually legal. (If you fail to maintain your brakes, or fall asleep at the wheel, most likely you might die but probably nobody else. A similar problem in a flying vehicle is quite another problem, especially in crowded areas.)
Household robots? Sorta. Vacuum cleaners and industrial courier robots for use inside buildings are relatively common, and getting more so.
One more thing: Predictions of technological advance are just about always over-optimistic in the short term and over-pessimistic in the long term. Personally, I think the Singularity will arrive by stealth; one fine day you'll realise that Siri or Cortana is actually sapient... And not long after that, as Vinge said (OK, maybe first) the rest of history will be out of human control and impossible to predict.
(Incidentally, of course here I mean the first singularity. Transapients might not even want to go any further, although admittedly if one believes that - most of OA is hogwash.)