The Orion's Arm Universe Project Forums

Technological unemployment
Oxford study I found analyzing the probability of computerization for different U.S. jobs.

MIT technology review article talking about this study.
Strangely enough I was reading the second link myself only this morning. Note that the projections are based on present-day or easily-predicted technology. That means that if we include technology which is somewhat more advanced, but still relatively reasonable, the number of jobs lost will be significantly higher.

The OA scenario is deliberately vague about the near future, since there are several conflicting processes that will compete against each other to make the near future interesting. Increasing automation will remove at least three-quarters of all current jobs, and presumably create opportunities that we can only dimly imagine. Even more important will be the development of true, sophont AI; in the OA scenario this process is successful fairly early in the timeline, but the implementation of AI systems takes quite a bit longer, because of the complexities of integrating the new minds into society and the economy. Eventually the emergence of true general AI becomes a very positive boost to the global economy.

However these positive developments are countered by negative processes such as global warming, the depletion of resources, overpopulation and the energy crisis. If global economies suffer several setbacks of this kind, then that will slow the development of an automated economy; maybe automation will decrease the effects of these crises in the long run, but the accompanying unemployment will tend to make things worse. There is a real risk that the global economy will suffer repeated shocks due to these processes, and when it eventually recovers and attains some stability thanks to automation, there will be a significant fraction of the world's population that has no stake or involvement in it and receives no benefit.
Great analysis Steve. I'm agree.
Video by CGP grey about technological unemployment

Humans need not apply


Wikipedia article

Forum Jump:

Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)