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How difficult is the transition to multi-cellular life?
(06-22-2018, 05:05 AM)tmazanec1 Wrote: IMVHO, the abiogenesis of a protocell capable of reproducing and evolving is the Great Filter.

George Dvorsky has a good take on this over on his blog. His opinion is that the transition from prokaryote to eukaryote is so incredibly difficult that it could well be the great filter we've prophesised. If true, it would certainly remove a gigantic amount of potential biospheres from the race. I happen to agree that the filter has to make its appearance at an early stage. Otherwise, that would leave such a large number of intelligent species that some of them will get through based on sheer luck... Thus leaving the galaxy with multiple advanced civilisations, billions of years before humanity even appeared.

The question we have to ask is this: Could a filter that makes a late appearance have sufficient reliability to wipe out 99.9999% of all intelligent species? Unlikely. I can't say whether or not its impossible, since we're dealing with an unknown unknown. But based on the potential candidates we've speculated on (hostile superintelligence, nuclear war, resource depletion), late filters don't seem adequate.

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RE: How difficult is the transition to multi-cellular life? - by Avalancheon - 06-22-2018, 04:15 PM

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